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1.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 228, 2023 Apr 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2302287

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Taste or smell disorders have been reported as strongly associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. We aimed to identify subject characteristics, symptom associations, and antibody response intensity associated with taste or smell disorders. METHODS: We used data from SAPRIS, a study based on a consortium of five prospective cohorts gathering 279,478 participants in the French general population. In the analysis, we selected participants who were presumably infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the first epidemic wave. RESULTS: The analysis included 3,439 patients with a positive ELISA-Spike. Sex (OR = 1.28 [95% CI 1.05-1.58] for women), smoking (OR = 1.54 [95% CI 1.13-2.07]), consumption of more than 2 drinks of alcohol a day (OR = 1.37 [95% CI 1.06-1.76]) were associated with a higher probability of taste or smell disorders. The relationship between age and taste or smell disorders was non-linear. Serological titers were associated with taste or smell disorders: OR = 1.31 [95% CI 1.26-1.36], OR = 1.37 [95% CI 1.33-1.42] and OR = 1.34 [95% CI 1.29-1.39] for ELISA-Spike, ELISA-Nucleocapsid and seroneutralization, respectively. Among participants with taste or smell disorders, 90% reported a wide variety of other symptoms whereas 10% reported no other symptom or only rhinorrhea. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with a positive ELISA-Spike test, women, smokers and people drinking more than 2 drinks a day were more likely to develop taste or smell disorders. This symptom was strongly associated with an antibody response. The overwhelming majority of patients with taste or smell disorders experienced a wide variety of symptoms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Olfaction Disorders , Humans , Female , SARS-CoV-2 , Taste/physiology , COVID-19 Testing , Prospective Studies , Antibody Formation , Taste Disorders/etiology , Taste Disorders/epidemiology , Olfaction Disorders/epidemiology , Olfaction Disorders/etiology , Olfaction Disorders/diagnosis , Smell
2.
EClinicalMedicine ; 58:101881-101881, 2023.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2260195

ABSTRACT

Background Preoperative COVID-19 has been associated with excess postoperative morbi-mortality. Consequently, guidelines were developed that recommended the postponement of surgery for at least 7 weeks after the infection. We hypothesised that vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 and the large predominance of the Omicron variant attenuated the effect of a preoperative COVID-19 on the occurrence of postoperative respiratory morbidity. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study in 41 French centres between 15 March and 30 May 2022 (ClinicalTrials NCT05336110), aimed at comparing the postoperative respiratory morbidity between patients with and without preoperative COVID-19 within 8 weeks prior to surgery. The primary outcome was a composite outcome combining the occurrence of pneumonia, acute respiratory failure, unexpected mechanical ventilation, and pulmonary embolism within the first 30 postoperative days. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, hospital length-of-stay, readmissions, and non-respiratory infections. The sample size was determined to have 90% power to identify a doubling of the primary outcome rate. Adjusted analyses were performed using propensity score modelling and inverse probability weighting. Findings Of the 4928 patients assessed for the primary outcome, of whom 92.4% were vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2, 705 had preoperative COVID-19. The primary outcome was reported in 140 (2.8%) patients. An 8-week preoperative COVID-19 was not associated with increased postoperative respiratory morbidity (odds ratio 1.08 [95% CI 0.48–2.13];p = 0.83). None of the secondary outcomes differed between the two groups. Sensitivity analyses concerning the timing between COVID-19 and surgery, and the clinical presentations of preoperative COVID-19 did not show any association with the primary outcome, except for COVID-19 patients with ongoing symptoms the day of surgery (OR 4.29 [1.02–15.8];p = 0.04). Interpretation In our Omicron-predominant, highly immunised population undergoing general surgery, a preoperative COVID-19 was not associated with increased postoperative respiratory morbidity. Funding The study was fully funded by the 10.13039/501100014262French Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine (SFAR).

3.
Anaesth Crit Care Pain Med ; 42(1): 101184, 2023 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2149185

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 patients requiring mechanical ventilation are particularly at risk of developing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Risk factors and the prognostic impact of developing VAP during critical COVID-19 have not been fully documented. METHODS: Patients invasively ventilated for at least 48 h from the prospective multicentre COVID-ICU database were included in the analyses. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to determine factors associated with the occurrence of VAP. Cox-regression multivariable models were used to determine VAP prognosis. Risk factors and the prognostic impact of early vs. late VAP, and Pseudomonas-related vs. non-Pseudomonas-related VAP were also determined. MAIN FINDINGS: 3388 patients were analysed (63 [55-70] years, 75.8% males). VAP occurred in 1523/3388 (45.5%) patients after 7 [5-9] days of ventilation. Identified bacteria were mainly Enterobacteriaceae followed by Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. VAP risk factors were male gender (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.26, 95% Confidence Interval [1.09-1.46]), concomitant bacterial pneumonia at ICU admission (HR 1.36 [1.10-1.67]), PaO2/FiO2 ratio at intubation (HR 0.99 [0.98-0.99] per 10 mmHg increase), neuromuscular-blocking agents (HR 0.89 [0.76-0.998]), and corticosteroids (HR 1.27 [1.09-1.47]). VAP was associated with 90-mortality (HR 1.34 [1.16-1.55]), predominantly due to late VAP (HR 1.51 [1.26-1.81]). The impact of Pseudomonas-related and non-Pseudomonas-related VAP on mortality was similar. CONCLUSION: VAP affected almost half of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients. Several risk factors have been identified, among which modifiable risk factors deserve further investigation. VAP had a specific negative impact on 90-day mortality, particularly when it occurred between the end of the first week and the third week of ventilation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated , Humans , Male , Female , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/microbiology , Prospective Studies , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Respiration, Artificial/adverse effects , Prognosis , Risk Factors , Intensive Care Units
4.
Frontiers in medicine ; 9, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2046454

ABSTRACT

Background A global reduction in hospital admissions for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) was observed during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large-scale studies covering the entire pandemic period are lacking. We investigated hospitalizations for AECOPD and the associated in-hospital mortality at the national level in France during the first 2 years of the pandemic. Methods We used the French National Hospital Database to analyse the time trends in (1) monthly incidences of hospitalizations for AECOPD, considering intensive care unit (ICU) admission and COVID-19 diagnoses, and (2) the related in-hospital mortality, from January 2016 to November 2021. Pandemic years were compared with the pre-pandemic years using Poisson regressions. Results The database included 565,890 hospitalizations for AECOPD during the study period. The median age at admission was 74 years (interquartile range 65–83), and 37% of the stays concerned women. We found: (1) a dramatic and sustainable decline in hospitalizations for AECOPD over the pandemic period (from 8,899 to 6,032 monthly admissions, relative risk (RR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65–0.66), and (2) a concomitant increase in in-hospital mortality for AECOPD stays (from 6.2 to 7.6% per month, RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.21–1.27). The proportion of stays yielding ICU admission was similar in the pre-pandemic and pandemic years, 21.5 and 21.3%, respectively. In-hospital mortality increased to a greater extent for stays without ICU admission (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.35–1.43) than for those with ICU admission (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Since January 2020, only 1.5% of stays were associated with a diagnosis of COVID-19, and their mortality rate was nearly three-times higher than those without COVID-19 (RR 2.66, 95% CI 2.41–2.93). Conclusion The decline in admissions for AECOPD during the pandemic could be attributed to a decrease in the incidence of exacerbations for COPD patients and/or to a possible shift from hospital to community care. The rise in in-hospital mortality is partially explained by COVID-19, and could be related to restricted access to ICUs for some patients and/or to greater proportions of severe cases among the patients hospitalized during the pandemic.

6.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 8622, 2022 05 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1900645

ABSTRACT

Assessment of the intensity, dynamics and determinants of the antibody response after SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination in the general population is critical to guide vaccination policies. This study characterized the anti-spike IgG titers in 13,971 participants included in a French multicohort population-based serological survey on COVID-19 between April and October 2020 and followed-up with serological testing between May and October 2021. Eight follow-up profiles were defined depending on SARS-CoV-2 infection (0, 1 or 2) and COVID-19 vaccination (0, 1, 2 or 3). The anti-spike titer was lower in adults with no vaccination even in case of infection or reinfection, while it was higher in adults with infection followed by vaccination. The anti-spike titer was negatively correlated with age in vaccinated but uninfected adults, whereas it was positively correlated with age in unvaccinated but infected adults. In adults with 2 vaccine injections and no infection, the vaccine protocol, age, gender, and time since the last vaccine injection were independently associated with the anti-spike titer. The decrease in anti-spike titer was much more rapid in vaccinated than in infected subjects. These results highlight the strong heterogeneity of the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 in the general population depending on previous infection and vaccination.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Antibodies, Viral , Antibody Formation , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Humans , Vaccination
7.
Clin J Am Soc Nephrol ; 17(3): 395-402, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1707022

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Dialysis patients have a high mortality risk after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and an altered immunologic response to vaccines, but vaccine clinical effectiveness remains unknown in this population. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Using Bayesian multivariable spatiotemporal models, we estimated the association between vaccine exposure and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) severe infections (with hospital admission) in dialysis patients from simultaneous incidence in the general population. For dialysis patients, cases were reported within the French end-stage kidney disease REIN registry from March 11, 2020, to April 29, 2021, and vaccine exposure (first dose) was reported in weekly national surveys since January 2021. Cases in the general population were obtained from the national exhaustive inpatient surveillance system (SI-VIC database), and vaccination coverage (first dose) was obtained from the national surveillance system (VAC-SI database). RESULTS: During the first wave, incidence in dialysis patients was approximately proportional to the general population. However, we showed a lower relative incidence for dialysis patients during the second wave (compared with that observed in nondialysis patients), suggesting an effect of prevention measures. Moreover, from the beginning of the vaccination rollout, incidence in dialysis patients was lower compared with predictions based on the first and second waves. Adding vaccination coverages in dialysis and nondialysis patients as predictors allowed the reported cases to be fit correctly (3685 predicted cases, 95% confidence interval, 3552 to 3816, versus 3620 reported). Incidence rate ratios were 0.37 (95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.71) for vaccine exposure in dialysis patients and 0.50 (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.61) per 10% higher in vaccination coverage in the same-age general population, meaning that vaccine exposure in dialysis patients and the general population was independently associated with lower hospitalization rate of dialysis patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that vaccination may yield a protective effect against severe forms of COVID-19 in dialysis patients, despite altered immunologic vaccine responses.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , Renal Dialysis , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/therapy , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Vaccine Efficacy , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , Female , France/epidemiology , Humans , Immunocompromised Host , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Registries , Renal Dialysis/adverse effects , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/immunology , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome , Vaccination
9.
Infection ; 50(1): 257-262, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1530479

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The interplay between age and symptoms intensity on antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection has not been studied in a general population setting. METHODS: We explored the serologic profile of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the first wave of the pandemic, by assessing IgG against the spike protein (ELISA-S), IgG against the nucleocapsid protein (ELISA-NP) and neutralizing antibodies (SN) in 82,126 adults from a French population-based multi-cohort study. RESULTS: ELISA-S positivity was increased in 30- to 49-year-old adults (8.5%) compared to other age groups (5.6% in 20- to 29-year-olds, 2.8% in ≥ 50-year-olds). In the 3681 ELISA-S positive participants, ELISA-NP and SN positivity exhibited a U-shaped relationship with age, with a lower rate in 30- to 49-year-old adults, and was strongly associated with COVID-19-like symptoms. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms the independent role of age and symptoms on the serologic profile of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, but the non-linear relationship with age deserves further investigation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Antibodies, Viral , Cohort Studies , Humans , Middle Aged , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
10.
Int J Epidemiol ; 50(5): 1458-1472, 2021 Nov 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1320316

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the seropositivity to anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in May-June 2020 after the first lockdown period in adults living in three regions in France and to identify the associated risk factors. METHODS: Between 4 May 2020 and 23 June 2020, 16 000 participants in a survey on COVID-19 from an existing consortium of three general adult population cohorts living in the Ile-de-France (IDF) or Grand Est (GE) (two regions with high rate of COVID-19) or in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine (NA) (with a low rate) were randomly selected to take a dried-blood spot for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies assessment with three different serological methods (ClinicalTrial Identifier #NCT04392388). The primary outcome was a positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA IgG result against the spike protein of the virus (ELISA-S). Estimates were adjusted using sampling weights and post-stratification methods. Multiple imputation was used to infer the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection with adjustments for imperfect tests accuracies. RESULTS: The analysis included 14 628 participants, 983 with a positive ELISA-S. The weighted estimates of seropositivity and cumulative incidence were 10.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1%, 10.9%] and 11.4% (95% CI: 10.1%, 12.8%) in IDF, 9.0% (95% CI: 7.7%, 10.2%) and 9.8% (95% CI: 8.1%, 11.8%) in GE and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.7%) and 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1%, 3.8%) in NA, respectively. Seropositivity was higher in younger participants [odds ratio (OR) = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.79, 6.09) in <40 vs 50-60 years old and OR = 0.56 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.74) in ≥70 vs 50-60 years old)] and when at least one child or adolescent lived in the same household [OR = 1.30 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.53)] and was lower in smokers compared with non-smokers [OR = 0.71 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS: Seropositivity to anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the French adult population was ≤10% after the first wave. Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors were identified.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , Adult , Antibodies, Viral , Child , Communicable Disease Control , France/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Middle Aged , Seroepidemiologic Studies
11.
Lancet Public Health ; 6(6): e408-e415, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1246268

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Regional monitoring of the proportion of the population who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular nationwide serosurveys. We aimed to estimate in near real time the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a method to reconstruct the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected, using the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation, and case data, with deconvolution methods. We developed our method on a dataset consisting of seroprevalence estimates from 9782 participants (aged ≥20 years) in the two worst affected regions of France in May, 2020, and applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions over the period March, 2020, to January, 2021. We validated our method externally using data from a national seroprevalence study done between May and June, 2020. FINDINGS: We estimate that 5·7% (95% CI 5·1-6·4) of adults in metropolitan France had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 11, 2020. This proportion remained stable until August, 2020, and increased to 14·9% (13·2-16·9) by Jan 15, 2021. With 26·5% (23·4-29·8) of adult residents having been infected in Île-de-France (Paris region) compared with 5·1% (4·5-5·8) in Brittany by January, 2021, regional variations remained large (coefficient of variation [CV] 0·50) although less so than in May, 2020 (CV 0·74). The proportion infected was twice as high (20·4%, 15·6-26·3) in 20-49-year-olds than in individuals aged 50 years or older (9·7%, 6·9-14·1). 40·2% (34·3-46·3) of infections in adults were detected in June to August, 2020, compared with 49·3% (42·9-55·9) in November, 2020, to January, 2021. Our regional estimates of seroprevalence were strongly correlated with the external validation dataset (coefficient of correlation 0·89). INTERPRETATION: Our simple approach to estimate the proportion of adults that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 can help to characterise the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemic dynamics, and the performance of surveillance in different regions. FUNDING: EU RECOVER, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (Inserm).


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Public Health Surveillance/methods , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , COVID-19/therapy , France/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Young Adult
12.
J Am Soc Nephrol ; 32(5): 1033-1036, 2021 05 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1211747

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The humoral response against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the hemodialysis population, including its dynamics over time, remains poorly understood. METHODS: To analyze initial and long-term humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2 in a hemodialysis population, we retrospectively evaluated findings from SARS-CoV-2 IgG serologic assays targeting the nucleocapsid antigen or spike antigen up to 6 months of follow-up in patients on hemodialysis in the Paris, France, region who had recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). RESULTS: Our analysis included 83 patients (median age 65 years); 59 (71%) were male and 28 (34%) had presented with severe COVID-19. We observed positive initial SARS-CoV-2 IgG antinucleocapsid serology in 74 patients (89%) at a median of 67 days postdiagnosis. By multivariable analysis, immunocompromised status was the only factor significantly associated with lack of an IgG antinucleocapsid antibody response. Follow-up data were available at 6 months postdiagnosis for 60 of 74 patients (81%) with positive initial antinucleocapsid serology, and 15 (25%) of them had negative antinucleocapsid serology at month 6. In total, 14 of 15 sera were tested for antispike antibodies, 3 of 14 (21%) of which were also negative. Overall, 97% of antinucleocapsid-antibody-positive specimens were also antispike-antibody positive. Female sex, age >70 years, and nonsevere clinical presentation were independently associated with faster IgG antinucleocapsid titer decay in multivariable analysis. After adjustment for sex and age >70 years, nonsevere clinical presentation was the only factor associated with faster decay of IgG antispike antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: This study characterizes evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response in patients on hemodialysis and identifies factors that are associated with lack of seroconversion and with IgG titer decay.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/immunology , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Kidney Failure, Chronic/complications , Kidney Failure, Chronic/immunology , Renal Dialysis , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Coronavirus Nucleocapsid Proteins/immunology , Female , Humans , Immunocompromised Host , Kinetics , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Paris/epidemiology , Phosphoproteins/immunology , Renal Dialysis/adverse effects , Retrospective Studies , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Transplant Recipients , Transplantation Immunology
13.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 169, 2021 Feb 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1079219

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Our main objectives were to estimate the incidence of illnesses presumably caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection during the lockdown period and to identify the associated risk factors. METHODS: Participants from 3 adult cohorts in the general population in France were invited to participate in a survey on COVID-19. The main outcome was COVID-19-Like Symptoms (CLS), defined as a sudden onset of cough, fever, dyspnea, ageusia and/or anosmia, that lasted more than 3 days and occurred during the 17 days before the survey. We used delayed-entry Cox models to identify associated factors. RESULTS: Between April 2, 2020 and May 12, 2020, 279,478 participants were invited, 116,903 validated the questionnaire and 106,848 were included in the analysis. Three thousand thirty-five cases of CLS were reported during 62,099 person-months of follow-up. The cumulative incidences of CLS were 6.2% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI): 5.7%; 6.6%) on day 15 and 8.8% (95%CI 8.3%; 9.2%) on day 45 of lockdown. The risk of CLS was lower in older age groups and higher in French regions with a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, in participants living in cities > 100,000 inhabitants (vs rural areas), when at least one child or adolescent was living in the same household, in overweight or obese people, and in people with chronic respiratory diseases, anxiety or depression or chronic diseases other than diabetes, cancer, hypertension or cardiovascular diseases. CONCLUSION: The incidence of CLS in the general population remained high during the first 2 weeks of lockdown, and decreased significantly thereafter. Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors were identified.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Child , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Cough , Female , Fever , France/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Risk Factors
14.
Infect Dis Now ; 51(4): 380-382, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1033154

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at estimating the SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization (IHR) and infection fatality ratios (IFR) in France. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A serosurvey was conducted in 9782 subjects from the two French regions with the highest incidence of COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic and coupled with surveillance data. RESULTS: IHR and IFR were 2.7% and 0.49% overall. Both were higher in men and increased exponentially with age. The relative risks of hospitalization and death were 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9-2.3) and 3.8 (2.4-4.2) per 10-year increase, meaning that IHR and IFR approximately doubled every 10 and 5 years, respectively. They were dramatically high in the very elderly (80-90 years: IHR: 26%, IFR: 9.2%), and also substantial in younger adults (40-50 years: IHR: 0.98%, IFR: 0.042%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the need for comprehensive preventive measures to help reduce the spread of the virus, even in young or middle-aged adults.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Hospitalization , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/prevention & control , Female , France/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Assessment , Young Adult
16.
Ann Intensive Care ; 10(1): 135, 2020 Oct 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-874079

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The average length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU_ALOS) is a helpful parameter summarizing critical bed occupancy. During the outbreak of a novel virus, estimating early a reliable ICU_ALOS estimate of infected patients is critical to accurately parameterize models examining mitigation and preparedness scenarios. METHODS: Two estimation methods of ICU_ALOS were compared: the average LOS of already discharged patients at the date of estimation (DPE), and a standard parametric method used for analyzing time-to-event data which fits a given distribution to observed data and includes the censored stays of patients still treated in the ICU at the date of estimation (CPE). Methods were compared on a series of all COVID-19 consecutive cases (n = 59) admitted in an ICU devoted to such patients. At the last follow-up date, 99 days after the first admission, all patients but one had been discharged. A simulation study investigated the generalizability of the methods' patterns. CPE and DPE estimates were also compared to COVID-19 estimates reported to date. RESULTS: LOS ≥ 30 days concerned 14 out of the 59 patients (24%), including 8 of the 21 deaths observed. Two months after the first admission, 38 (64%) patients had been discharged, with corresponding DPE and CPE estimates of ICU_ALOS (95% CI) at 13.0 days (10.4-15.6) and 23.1 days (18.1-29.7), respectively. Series' true ICU_ALOS was greater than 21 days, well above reported estimates to date. CONCLUSIONS: Discharges of short stays are more likely observed earlier during the course of an outbreak. Cautious unbiased ICU_ALOS estimates suggest parameterizing a higher burden of ICU bed occupancy than that adopted to date in COVID-19 forecasting models. FUNDING: Support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81900097 to Dr. Zhou) and the Emergency Response Project of Hubei Science and Technology Department (2020FCA023 to Pr. Zhao).

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